Roy Halladay is probably out until the All-Star break, and the Phillies face a harsh reality.
They're without their best slugger (Ryan Howard), their All-Star second baseman (Chase Utley) and now their ace. And they didn't get Roy Oswalt to replace Halladay, either, as he chose an offer from the Texas Rangers.
On the optimistic side, the Phillies are only four games out of first place, and they could be getting all their injuries out of their way in the first half. Howard, Utley and Halladay should all be back for the stretch run.
On the pessimistic side, it's a tough division. The Washington Nationals currently have the best rotation in the division. The Atlanta Braves are reeling, but talented. The Miami Marlins have enough talent to be a threat. The New York Mets have been a surprise. The Phillies are behind all four of them in the standings.
As Jayson Stark of ESPN.com pointed out, the Phillies have been held to one run or fewer 12 times already this season.
"Our division's going to be very tight," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said to the New York Times. "That's why it's very important for us to kind of keep our head above water. We want to win all the games we possibly can, but we've got to stay alive."
They've probably got a month. If the Phillies remain within a modest winning streak of first place, they'll hope for health down the stretch. As Buster Olney wrote, the Phillies are at a crossroads.
And here's a prediction: Cole Hamels will be pitching in a pennant race. It remains to see if it will be in Philadelphia.
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